Losses for German exporters to US to be lower in 2026

German exporters should expect further losses in their most important market, the United States, in the coming year, due to the Trump administration's tariff policy.

"However, following the sharp decline in 2025, the loss is likely to be smaller," the federal economic development agency Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) predicted on Monday.

For the current year, GTAI expects exports of goods "Made in Germany" to the United States to decline by between 8 and 9% compared with the previous year.

Customs duties of 15% have applied to most imports from the European Union to the US since August 7. US President Donald Trump raised customs duties on steel and aluminium to 50% at the beginning of June.

The European Commission was able to negotiate exemptions for important sectors such as the automotive industry. "However, small and medium-sized engineering companies will continue to be heavily burdened," the GTAI noted.

Official figures show German exports to the US recovered somewhat in September after five months of sometimes sharp declines. However, the gap to the same month last year, which was not affected by tariff increases, was still 14%.

According to GTAI estimates, a weakening labour market and rising inflation in the US are likely to stifle consumption, by far the most important pillar of the US economy, in the coming year.

In addition, many companies have not yet passed on the higher import tariffs to their customers and are "likely to do so in 2026."

The most important German export goods include pharmaceuticals and chemicals, machinery and equipment, motor vehicles and electronics.